America Doesn't Need A Strong Dollar Policy

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Wednesday, March 13, 2013

It’s often taken for granted that America needs a strong dollar.  When the value of the U.S. dollar is strong relative to other currencies, it becomes attractive to investors and allows Americans to buy foreign goods and services cheaply.  But in times of recession, are we better off with a weak dollar that stimulates U.S. manufacturing by making our goods cheaper and more competitive?  Or will the loss of purchasing power and currency manipulation abroad, offset the potential gains?

  • Frederic-Mishkin90x90

    For

    Frederic Mishkin

    Professor, Columbia Business School

  • John-Taylor90x90

    For

    John Taylor

    Chairman and Founder, FX Concepts

  • Steve-Forbes90x90

    Against

    Steve Forbes

    Chairman and Editor-in-Chief, Forbes Media

  • James-Grant90x90

    Against

    James Grant

    Editor and Founder, Grant's Interest Rate Observer


  • Moderator Image

    MODERATOR

    John Donvan

    Author & Correspondent for ABC News

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Frederic-Mishkin90x90

For The Motion

Frederic Mishkin

Professor, Columbia Business School

Frederic S. Mishkin is the Alfred Lerner Professor of Banking and Financial Institutions at Columbia Business School.  He is also a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research, a member of the Squam Lake Working Group on Financial Reform, and the co-director of the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum.  From September 2006 to August 2008 he was a member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.  He has also been a senior fellow at the FDIC Center for Banking Research, and past president of the Eastern Economic Association.  Since receiving his Ph.D. from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 1976, he has taught at the University of Chicago, Northwestern University, Princeton University and Columbia.  From 1994 to 1997 he was executive vice president and director of research at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and an associate economist of the Federal Open Market Committee of the Federal Reserve System.

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John-Taylor90x90

For The Motion

John Taylor

Chairman and Founder, FX Concepts

In 1981 John Taylor founded FX Concepts, a multi-faceted investment management company, which today manages over $4 billion in currency absolute return and overlay strategies.  FX Concepts is known around the world as an innovative and highly successful manager of foreign exchange assets as well as a leader in the field of foreign exchange risk management.  Taylor has written numerous articles in investment journals and is often quoted in the popular press on financial topics.  Before starting FX Concepts, John was a vice president at Citibank, where he was the head of the bank’s marketing, advisory services, and research for foreign exchange.  Taylor is also a founder and former chairman of Franklin University Switzerland, Inc.,  in Lugano, Switzerland and  the chairman of Inspiration Biopharmaceuticals, Inc., a development stage biotech company.

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Steve-Forbes90x90

Against The Motion

Steve Forbes

Chairman and Editor-in-Chief, Forbes Media

Steve Forbes is chairman and editor-in-chief of Forbes Media. Forbes writes editorials for each issue of Forbes under the heading of “Fact and Comment.” A widely respected economic prognosticator, he is the only writer to have won the highly prestigious Crystal Owl Award four times. In both 1996 and 2000, Forbes campaigned vigorously for the Republican nomination for the presidency. Forbes is the author of Freedom Manifesto: Why Free Markets Are Moral and Big Government Isn’t (2012). Forbes serves on the boards of The Ronald Reagan Presidential Foundation, the Heritage Foundation and The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. He is on the Board of Overseers of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and on the Board of Visitors for the School of Public Policy of Pepperdine University. He previously served on the Board of Trustees of Princeton University for ten years.

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James-Grant90x90

Against The Motion

James Grant

Editor and Founder, Grant's Interest Rate Observer

James Grant is the editor and founder of Grant's Interest Rate Observer, a twice-monthly journal of the financial markets. Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books on finance and financial history including Money of the Mind (1992) and Mr. Market Miscalculates (2008). A sixth book John Adams: Party of One, a biography of the second president of the United States, was published in March 2005. Grant's television appearances include 60 Minutes, The News Hour with Jim Lehrer, CBS Evening News, and a 10-year stint on Wall Street Week.  His journalism has appeared in a variety of periodicals, including the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Foreign Affairs.

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Declared Winner: For The Motion

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Voting Breakdown:
 

44% voted the same way in BOTH pre- and post-debate votes (17% voted FOR twice, 19% voted AGAINST twice, 8% voted UNDECIDED twice). 56% changed their minds (6% voted FOR then changed to AGAINST, 0% voted FOR then changed to UNDECIDED, 10% voted AGAINST then changed to FOR, 2% voted AGAINST then changed to UNDECIDED, 26% voted UNDECIDED then changed to FOR, 12% voted UNDECIDED then changed to AGAINST) | Breakdown Graphic

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19 comments

  • Comment Link Yusuf Saturday, 13 April 2013 11:01 posted by Yusuf

    This isnt a news flash but KEY info in the barter trade world duinrg SHTF. It only works if the person youre trading w/ wants what you have. If you dont need gold/silver why would I even care to trade w/ you.Whats worthless 2 you may not be 4 someone else that is why Im glad I dont follow the crowd nor do I care what they think. Leaders make their own way blaze a trail for others. So while you eat your rice drink your water I'll be doing the same but w/ gold silver Just N Case

  • Comment Link Jason McPhee Friday, 12 April 2013 18:12 posted by Jason McPhee

    One of the biggest moral questions that wasn't gone into in any depth was that of war. The side for government manipulation of the currency used this example as a time when governments need flexibility. It is exactly the opposite for a democracy.

    People need to understand the true cost of war prior to entering into it, not have the government ease them into those costs. If people see the true opportunity cost, most rational people will do what they can to avoid violent conflict.

  • Comment Link mark Sunday, 31 March 2013 08:10 posted by mark

    "Elide" - that word does not mean what you think it means.

    The Podcast was severely edited, and to it's detriment. Why do that? Lucky I came to the website to review parts again!

  • Comment Link mark Sunday, 31 March 2013 04:40 posted by mark

    Arguing past each other, one side on an intellectual soap box, and the other with catchy sound bites. Sound familiar?

    Re: fixed standard, why gold? Why not the labor hour? I was hoping for more macroeconomic elucidation.

    re: gold, if you like it so much, you can easily keep you savings in gold.

  • Comment Link Christopher Rushlau Thursday, 21 March 2013 13:28 posted by Christopher Rushlau

    It may interest the proprietors to know that I turned off the radio (re-)broadcast of this debate here in Maine today, 21 March, 2013, when Mr. Forbes began his opening remarks.
    He had just finished depositing a cow in an ATM and withdrawing a pig.
    This raises the question of whether an entirely unregulated market can exist. It answers the question in the negative: when there is no regulation, there is no transaction. Smashing and grabbing is not a transaction.

  • Comment Link Miles K Monday, 18 March 2013 18:55 posted by Miles K

    It's unfortunate that Forbes' quality of debate was so low. Where he could have clarified the implications of their views further, he stuck with taglines, simplistic analogies, and bare assertions. It might be that his view is supported by more nuance, detail, and nuts & bolts facts. But instead, he chose to continue talking about that vaunted stable metric, as if that were enough to win the argument. It was most certainly not.

  • Comment Link john stark Monday, 18 March 2013 14:16 posted by john stark

    The question is whether we can return to the gold standard when the economic system has been so deformed by extreme and irresponsible monetary policy to the extent that we are beyond the point where we can step away from those policies without causing total collapse. We are caught in the web engineered by those who knew it was impossible to escape its trap without fatal consequence. The classic concept which makes those trapped within its walls dependent upon those very walls for their continued survival.

  • Comment Link Diane Sunday, 17 March 2013 09:07 posted by Diane

    The debate was confusing. The arguments for returning to the gold standard sounded logical but there must be some reason why it's not done, and yet, the other side didn't really explain it. I assume that's because they were there to talk about what the policy should be under the present system. The debate should have been about one thing or the other.

  • Comment Link Mark Moore Friday, 15 March 2013 13:51 posted by Mark Moore

    I find it surprising neither Mishkin nor Taylor pointed out that using a gold standard doesn't eliminate the floating value of a common measure of value exchange. It only pushes the debate from what is the intrinsic value of a single US dollar to a debate of what is the intrinsic value of an ounce of gold. I'm hoping that is self-evident, but I'd be happy to elaborate if it's not.

    I believe I heard all four panelists argue that the *best* situation is a stable dollar. So, depending on how one parses the stated proposition, they were either all for the proposition, or unanimously against it. If you read it as "America doesn't need a policy that makes the dollar stronger (more valuable than the currency of our major trading partners)," then all four panelists were for the proposition. If you read it as "America doesn't need a dollar policy that is strongly enacted/enforced," then I believe all four panelists are adamantly against the proposition. Forbes and Grant would like the dollar policy to be strictly enforced with gold held in reserve. Mishkin and Taylor seem to argue for a dollar policy actively and aggressively pursuing a low inflation target.

    Assuming all four panelists believe it is in America's best interest to have a stable dollar, the real debate is about how best to achieve that goal. Forbes and Grant seem to believe that pining the dollar to gold achieves this. But, that only follows if the value of gold is stable. Unless the intrinsic value of gold is inherently stable, that would then demand a federal policy to stabilize the exchange value of gold. It seems to me a far simpler task to manage the value of a commodity one can create and destroy at will rather than a commodity that must be mined (to create more supply) or locked away (to diminish supply). It seems evident to me that the intrinsic value of gold is *not* stable since it rises and falls with the strength or weakness of the economy. Pegging the value of the US dollar to a fixed amount of gold seems indistinguishable from Argentina's failed policy of pegging their peso to the US dollar.[1]

    If the goal is a stable dollar, it seems most efficient to manipulate that commodity directly (the supply of US dollars) to counteract market forces that would increase or decrease the stable value.

    [1] en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Argentine_Currency_Board#Abandonment_of_the_peg

  • Comment Link Should governments use their OWN insider info to benefit the nation ? Thursday, 14 March 2013 17:05 posted by Should governments use their OWN insider info to benefit the nation ?

    RE; Changing dollar policy leading to an earthquake.

    If the US acts strategically on its own self-generated
    "insider information" - the US could generate enormous
    gains by CLANDESTINELY shorting the dollar (or more likely
    using swaps and options) prior to publicly declaring
    a new weak dollar policy.

    This could generate TRILLIONS in revenue - paid by wealthy
    financial counterparties - all over the world - directly
    into the US treasury. It'd function as a much needed
    tax on the global financial sector, and perhaps remind
    them that currency speculation can be dangerous for
    them - not just for nations and their peoples.

    The Governments of the world DO NOT OWE
    financial speculators, bond traders and hedge funds
    a living. They have a moral duty to their people
    not to a small narrow industry with well funded interests.
    Countries morally have a right and a duty to use the
    "insider information" they generate through their
    own policies to improve revenues to their citizens
    and even to damage those financial opponents who may
    threatem their people's well being and their sovereignty.
    At best much of this industry - transfers wealth - in reality
    by INCREASING VOLATILITY AND RISK it may decrease
    it (like a defection against a public good/tragedy of
    the commons). It does not CREATE much new value.

    The US does not owe the financial industry arbitrage
    profits.

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