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The Republican Party Should Not Re-Nominate Trump

The Republican Party Should Not Re-Nominate Trump

The Republican Party Should Not Re-Nominate Trump
The BriefGet Up To Speed

Americans are gearing up for the 2020 presidential elections, and Republicans have a choice: Should Donald Trump be their nominee? His detractors see a politically vulnerable candidate caught up in the uncertainty of the Mueller investigation, wounded by the longest government shutdown in history, and defeated by House Democrats who refused his demand for border wall funding. But many are standing behind the president. They argue his passionate and loyal base will deliver yet another political win, particularly if his campaign finally has the full support and guidance of the Republican Party. Can Trump deliver key swing states and another victory for the GOP? Or is he the wrong choice for the American right?

Background

"President Donald Trump’s re-election campaign is preparing an early focus on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, states that were instrumental to his improbable 2016 victory but where his support has softened, two campaign advisers said."

Wednesday, March 13, 2019
Steve Holland
Polls & Stats

"Differences in turnout rates again matter when talking about generations and should be kept in mind as election season gets underway. Since older adults are more likely to turn out to vote, it’s possible that older generations will form a larger share of actual voters in 2020 than their share in the electorate. That’s what happened in 2016: Even though Boomers and older generations accounted for 43% of eligible voters, they cast 49% of the ballots."

Wednesday, January 30, 2019
Anthony Cilluffo & Richard Fry
"NBC News/WSJ poll finds President Trump facing headwinds on Russia investigation and border wall but bolstered by strong GOP support and a good economy."
Sunday, March 3, 2019
Mark Murray

"How do things look for President Trump’s re-election?  Thirty-nine percent of voters think he will be re-elected, according to a new Fox News poll.  For comparison, former President Obama’s re-elect number was 29 percent at this same point in his presidency (December 2010)."

Wednesday, December 12, 2018
Dana Blanton

"President Trump wins high approval ratings from Republicans and has unified Democrats in opposition. But the reactions to Mr. Trump are masking important divisions within each party. Wall Street Journal/NBC News polling reveals the voters and policies that have divided the Republican Party into two wings, and the debates that will shape the party’s future."

Tuesday, May 1, 2018
Aaron Zitner & Gabriel Gianordoli

"Republicans would be wise to prepare some sort of backup for Trump. Scandal or crises can unexpectedly (or maybe in Trump’s case, expectedly) hit anyone. And, in theory, it might be possible to imagine someone uniting the less Trump-y factions of the GOP and putting together a solid challenge to Trump. But it’s hard to do that in practice — which is why the non-Trump Republicans failed in 2016 and why their odds of doing so are much worse in 2020."

Tuesday, March 12, 2019
David Byler
For the Motion

"During my 18 years as a member of Congress -- not so long ago -- my colleagues and I didn't robotically toe the line with the President. Republicans didn't vote in lockstep with Republican presidents, not even Ronald Reagan. And Democrats departed from their party's president when they thought it was the right thing to do. We took party loyalty seriously, but we gave even greater weight to principle."

Tuesday, March 12, 2019
John Kasich

"In some respects, the quiet among Republicans isn’t surprising. The incumbent president is a Republican. Serious intraparty challenges at the presidential level are relatively rare and never successful.But the Republican president is Donald Trump. If ever there were a time for a serious intraparty challenge, it’s now. He has strong support from elements of the Republican base, but he has alienated virtually everyone else, especially those segments of the electorate that are growing the fastest."

Friday, January 11, 2019
Stephen F. Hayes
"The president is running hard on a strategy of riling up his base. But by doing that, he riles up the Democratic base, too, and that one is bigger."
Thursday, January 24, 2019
Rachel Bitecofer
Against the Motion
"The Republican National Committee has finalized its senior staff for the 2020 election cycle with a focus on disrupting the Democratic presidential primary and continuing to build up the party’s field and digital infrastructure, the party told POLITICO."
Friday, March 1, 2019
Alex Thompson

"Trump’s dominance of the party begins with his lockdown support of the right, forcing any primary challenger to the left. This isn’t fertile territory. Self-identified moderates and liberals are only a fraction of the party, and it is grass-roots conservative activists who have fueled the most potent Republican primary challenges (Ronald Reagan in 1976, Pat Buchanan in 1992)."

Friday, March 1, 2019
Rich Lowry

"Whether or not they like Trump, millions of voters still think the president is all that stands between them and socialism, radical cultural transformation, and social chaos."

Thursday, January 17, 2019
Victor Davis Hanson
Historical Precedent
"Primary challenges have even cost incumbent presidents the nomination. And most of the time, presidents who fend off a primary challenge wind up losing the general election. Here's a look back at the major primary challenges against presidents in the modern era."
Tuesday, March 19, 2019
CBS News
"Running against the president in a primary is all risk, no reward."
Wednesday, January 2, 2019
Ramesh Ponnuru
"On Monday, Trump headed to New Hampshire, while his daughter announced she’s jetting to Iowa — both states that traditionally kick off the presidential campaign season. More than an early enthusiasm for the 2020 campaign season, the trips may signal a defensive move meant to discourage potential Republican primary challengers from adding their names to the ballot."
Monday, March 19, 2018
James Pindell

"Nineteen presidents have sought reelection since 1900: Of those, 14 won and five lost. (That is, if you count Gerald Ford, since he wasn't elected in the first place)."

Monday, April 4, 2011
Hayley Peterson
America’s Economy

"Here’s an interesting comment on American political economy from technology investor and Trump-friendly GOP money man Peter Thiel: 'In 2020, I suspect we’ll have an up-down referendum on the economy. The question will be: is the economy in a boom? If so, Trump will get re-elected. If not, he will have challenges.'"

Tuesday, November 19, 2019
Jim Pethokoukis

"As the economy raises President Trump, Democrats must raise other issues. Recent polling shows Trump’s increasing benefit from an impressively strong economy. It also explains why Democrats are increasingly in need of distractions from it.  As history shows, if America remains focused on Trump’s economic success, they will reelect him next year."

Monday, March 11, 2019
J.T. Young
"The new NAFTA is going nowhere, China’s not budging, and farmers are going under."
Friday, February 8, 2019
Michael Hirsh
Immigration
"The president’s relentless effort to cement the loyalty of his base is alienating him from the ambivalent voters who provided him critical support in 2016."
Thursday, January 10, 2019
Ronald Brownstein
"President Trump's 2020 campaign manager Brad Parscale sits down to discuss the president's reelection odds on Thursday's broadcast of FOX News' 'The Story' with host Martha MacCallum."
Friday, January 11, 2019
Ian Schwartz
Trump & Women
"House GOP, with few female incumbents following midterms, finds recruiting candidates no simple matter."
Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Kristina Peterson
"If "recapturing" the female vote, as Thompson put it, is about sending out the right, sometimes female messengers (i.e. not putting GOP men on TV to defend against accusations of a "war on women," as she told the crowd), the party is facing a battle."
Tuesday, January 22, 2019
Rosemary Westwood

"White women voters disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, but nonetheless view him more favorably than other voters — showing that even as a large Trump-era gender gap seems to have opened up, gender remains a less significant marker of political behavior than race and ethnicity or even age."

Wednesday, July 25, 2018
Matthew Yglesias
Possible Primary Challengers

"Here, David Remnick interviews Weld about his party’s case of Stockholm syndrome, breaking with the G.O.P. on climate change, and the challenges inherent to contesting a sitting President."

Tuesday, March 5, 2019
The New Yorker
"Will their rivalry move from Twitter to the presidential primary? Kasich has fans who would like to see him take on Trump (again) in 2020. But there are three facts working against Kasich’s ability to make it a real race."
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Ramesh Ponnuru

"Larry Hogan isn't ruling out a primary challenge to President Trump in 2020. The Maryland governor known for his straight-talking style was re-elected in November by double digits in a blue state with one of the largest minority populations in the country."

Wednesday, February 20, 2019
CBS News

"The first Republican Cabinet-level U.N. ambassador since the end of the Cold War, Haley has rejected the traditional chain of command that grants the secretary of state the primary policymaking role, and she has made it clear she will accept nothing less than to be Tillerson’s equal. Her voracious pursuit of the spotlight, meanwhile, has elevated her national profile and strengthened her prospects for higher political office should she decide, as many suspect she will, to pursue the American presidency."

Tuesday, March 19, 2019
Colum Lynch